As I awoke yesterday morning, it seemed pretty cold in my bedroom and I was to discover that the outside temperature was -3° but anticipated to rise to 8° later on in the day, so we evidently starting off the day with some very clear skies. The budget is due to be delivered at 12.30 today but all kinds of pre-announcements have taken place so that we are aware already of various ‘goodies’ on the budget such as increases to the minimum wage and to the full state pension. It used to be the case that the whole budget was shrouded in the most complete secrecy until the moment of delivery, no doubt so that speculators could not make a fortune on the stock market but the norms seem to have changed in today’s conditions. One is aware of a certain degree of ‘softening up’ of the electorate as pre-announcements are made of typically the good news, no doubt to try to set a climate of opinion before the budget news is delivered later on. This budget has been much anticipated and mulled over for weeks beforehand but the only certainty is that Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, will have to somehow plug a gap of some £20bn-£30bn in the nation’s finances. Almost certainly, we shall have a freeze on the allowances against tax which means that all kinds of individuals, including many pensioners, will be dragged into paying tax, or even higher rates of tax, for the first time. Sky News has a ‘Money’ section on its website which encourages individuals to contribute their own ideas as to what should go into the budget.  I was rather taken by these thoughts from one individual which ran as follows: ‘1p per litre on fuel, 1p on income tax wholly for the NHS, 5% tax on betting winnings over £500, tax on company directors who do not reward employees, and 1p on every drink at major coffee houses. This would raise huge amounts and be largely invisible to consumers. Give me a job.’ Everybody has their own particular grouse about the budget but we do have probably the most complex tax system in the world. The UK tax code is generally cited as the world’s longest, estimated to be over 21,000 pages and containing more than 10 million words.  The size of the ‘book’ is a common measure of the UK’s tax system’s complexity, though the exact page count can vary depending on what is included: Total Handbooks: The combined ‘Yellow and Orange Tax Handbooks’, which are comprehensive reference tools used by tax professionals, can run to over 21,000 pages in multiple volumes. Substantive Legislation: A 2012 report by the Office of Tax Simplification (OTS) estimated that the actual, unduplicated, substantive and administrative law was closer to 6,102 pages at that time, as the handbooks also include non-statutory materials, repealed legislation, and duplicated content. Comparison: To put the length in perspective, the 10 million words in the tax code are approximately:12 times the length of the Complete Works of Shakespeare or 9 times the length of all the Harry Potter books combined. The length has increased significantly over the years, trebling in size since 1997, leading to calls for simplification from various tax bodies and professionals. 

After I had breakfasted, my son and daughter-in-law called around and we had a long chat about family, friends, relationships and how we were filling our respective lives. This year, my son and daughter-in-law are spending Christmas with me together on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day and we have spent some time planning out what our Christmas meals are going to be as we are all planning to eat the things that we really do like, rather than just relying upon the traditional Christmas fare. Given my family had called around, this meant that I decided to forego my usual visit to the Methodist centre and I settled down with a good supply of elevenses, prepared to watch the fairly momentous Budget speech from the very start. The commentators were saying that the Chancellor needed to satisfy four sets of ‘audiences’ simultaneously – firstly, her own Labour Party backbenchers, then the wider electorate, then the business community and finally the stock market and bond traders. So this was going to be a very tricky balancing act and one at which Liz Truss spectacularly failed as she was relying upon the ‘kindness of strangers’ to provide the funds for otherwise unfunded tax cuts and the stock market promptly bombed. Although the political commentators do not agree as such, I think that Rachel Reeves did a pretty good job. The Labour backbenchers were reasonably satisfied particularly as no manifesto pledges were overtly broken and the cap on Child benefit beyond the first two had been removed. The business community issued a few grumbles about the cost of paying for additions to the National Minimum wage but this was only to be expected, particularly as the business community cannot have high expectations of a Labour chancellor. Perhaps most surprising was the reaction of the Stock market which may even have risen a little. The markets seemed happy that Reeves was building up some ‘financial headroom’ for the years ahead which certainly aids sentiment within the city.  As for the wider public, then some £28bn has been extracted from then, largely under the guise of stealth taxes, by not uprating allowances to be set against tax or in other words, the ultimate stealth tax. It will be interesting to gauge the reaction of, for example the ‘Question Time ‘ audience when it takes to the air on Thursday evening. There was an astonishing twist to the whole of the budget when the OBR made public the budget essentials a couple of hours before the presentation to the House of Commons in what was undoubtedly an error. Rachel Reeves was both furious and a trifle unlucky because as some of the figures behind the tax rises had already been released by the OBR then the opportunity for a political spin on issues was reduced. The main impact of the tax rises will slowly accumulate over the next few years as income tax allowances are frozen for the next few years and there is quite a lot of speculation this evening whether Rachel Reeves has done sufficient to save her political skin or whether she, and Starmer, might be ditched by an unhappy Labour Party in the next few months. But Reeves deserves some credit for keeping both the Labour Party and the stock market happy at the same time.

The not desperately cold weather is continuing this morning and when I awoke I noticed on the horizon clear skies so a reasonably clear and sunny day is in prospect. I mentioned to my next-door neighbour when I saw him yesterday that I wanted just one reasonably fine day so I can give my lawns a final cut so that I could ‘winterise’ the mower by removing the last of the oil and the petrol. My neighbour informed me tat he had just acquired a new gardener and he was in the same boat as myself so it looks as though we will both be seizing the opportunity presented by a reasonably sunny day today (with a temperature rising to 6°).The evening before I had not gone to bed until 1.00am in the morning because as I was in bed, I suddenly became gripped by a whistleblower drama based on true events in the run up to the Iraq war. A GCHQ employee discovered that the UK authorities were conniving with the Americans to illegally spy on UN delegates in order to secure a resolution that would give legal cover to an invasion of Iraq. The GCQC employee was appalled that the UK was rushing headlong into an evidently illegal war and when the leaked memo was traced to het she was arrested and charged under the Official Secrets Act. The young employee, Katherine Gunn, was soon to discover how the whole weight of the British security state was to descend upon her – even talking to a lawyer (in this case from the organisation ‘Liberty’) would be deemed a further breach of the Official Secrets Act making her liable to an even longer term of imprisonment. Hr only slender line of defence was to ague that a defence to breaking the Official Secrets Act would be the saving life and in the case of the Iraq war, thousands of lives. Her lawyers discovered that at the time of the offence, the view of the Attorney General was that the war was illegal but they were subsequently ‘bounced’ by the Americans and the UK authorities to change their view three days before the invasion. Now we come to the trial itself where the government would be forced to reveal that the official view at the time of the offence that the war was illegal and this would evidently be massively embarrassing to the Blair government, laying it open to the charge of war crimes. So the prosecution decided to withdraw the prosecution citing only that ‘the prosecution had no reasonable chance of success’ and so the employee, Katherine Gun was released although she had had charges hanging over her for a year. Incidentally, the non-discovery of WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) in Iraq at the conclusion of the war effectively blew the cover of the British and American government. This was all such gripping stuff that it kept me awake until nearly 1.00am but it was a fascinating watch. I also learnt that the Official Secrets Act had been amended after a similar case where a civil servant, Clive Ponting, leaked details of the illegal action taken against the Belgrano in the Falklands way when the Belgrano was sailing away from the Falkland islands but was sunk by the British with a loss of 323 lives. The amendment was in effect that even when the state had been evidently lying, this could no longer be used as a defence if charged under the ‘Official Secrets Act’ and this was something I did not know. Even now, I do not think that the bitterness shown towards Tony Blair not only in this country but across the whole of the Middle East is fully appreciated as it is evident ta the whole of the Iraq war was based upon a lie and only done to ingratiate ourselves with the ‘neo-con’ American regime at the time.

My son made a visit to me just at about breakfast time after his early morning swim and he was telling me about his visit to see his mother-in-law where he and his wife had managed to get some domestic issues, principally concerned with housing issues, sorted out in their visit. This was good news because there are occasions when my son and his wife are trying to sort issues at a distance so it was in everyone’s interest to get some of these issues resolved. After he had left, my Droitwich friend called around and I made her some breakfast (a sort of thrown together Spanish omelette) whilst she made calls on her laptop.  Then we went down the hill and paid a visit to my Irish friend who was able to give us some of her help and advice. Then I watched a bit of news on the TV before it was time for me to go down and do my Pilates class where a jolly time was had by all. One of my class members is in the throes of moving house to live nearer to her daughter but she has lived in her present house for some 38 years so I think she has got quite a lot of throwing away to do. I think she is up to four skips at the moment but there are probably more to follow before they move in January.  After Pilates I came home and had some food which my friend had left for me and then prepared myself for the one outside job I hdd scheduled in my mind for the afternoon.  This was to be the final cut of the back lawn but as this was going to be the very last cut of the season, I knew that I had prepare the mower for winter. This involves tipping the mower well over onto one of his sides to drain off that season’s oil (into one of those foil containers that pies and quiches often come in) to be transferred to a jam-jar. Then the mower had to be tipped on the other side to drain off the petrol but as there was only about ½ pint of this, I just threw it away. Now the mower has been put to bed I just hope and pray that it will start off unproblematically in late March next year. I finished at about 4.15 and the light had not faded so much that I couldn’t see what I was doing but by 4.30 it was pitch black so I just squeezed the job in within the hours of daylight that remain to us these days. When I got back in, I rewarded myself with a hot chocolate drink and a swift telephone call to my Droitwich friend to see what kind of a day she had had and we made some arrangements for a couple of days ahead.

So, yesterday, the start of the week saw an initial temperature of 2° which should rise to 7° later in the day. This is only to be welcomed after the cold blast of arctic air that we experienced last week. I always feel that if you have some bad weather in December, though, it is more bearable as Christmas is in sight and we are now in the last week of November.  In the forthcoming week, I have nothing that stands out on my planning board where I detail appointments for the forthcoming month but I know that I need to pay a visit to a hardware type store where I can replace a shower head that fell to pieces in my hands the other day. I am still waiting for something like a fine day when I can do the last cut of our back lawn and hen ‘winterise’ our trusty mower. Shortly, we will have the much anticipated budget thrust upon us and it will be interesting to see how much pain is inflicted upon us and which shoulders are called upon to bear the burden. Of course, we may see ‘efficiency savings’ as well as tax increases but how much actual waste in state expenditures can be discerned is the subject of much political debate, Despite the political fanfare, Reform’s Doge unit – styled after Elon Musk’s US ‘department of government efficiency’ – never arrived in Lancashire. To date, Doge has reportedly visited just three Reform councils – Kent, Worcestershire and West Northamptonshire – and has failed to scrutinise any internal finances at any council because of legal barriers. An analysis by The Observer of financial documents from the 12 local authorities now run by Reform reveals the scale of the challenge faced by the unit, with a budget shortfall of £300m across the councils in 2026-27. Most Reform-run councils have already indicated they will need to raise council taxes, as well as implement significant cuts to balance budgets next year. Reform-run Worcestershire council is now seeking residents’ views on council tax rises next year of up to 10%. Sources from other councils told The Observer that they expected Reform would have to take similar measures around the country. Last Wednesday, Zia Yusuf was replaced as head of the Doge unit by Richard Tice, the party’s deputy leader. Tice has described Doge as a ‘philosophy’ of saving money. Critics, however, say it is ‘fantasy politics. It has all unravelled – they haven’t identified any waste. Reform’s promised Doge has not materialised’ said Daniel Lister, leader of the opposition and Conservative group at West Northamptonshire council. ‘For all the spin during the election, the reality is that Reform has no new ideas, no new ways of saving money and no understanding of how to run a council.’ On the subject of the forthcoming budget, there is speculation or perhaps even a deliberate Treasury leak that pensioners may receive a higher than expected settlement starting from April next year. If this is true, I find it surprising but slightly strange politics unless it can be seen as a ‘sweetener’ to offset other policies such as the end of the triple lock system.

I had no real commitments on today so after some tidying up, I walked into town to pick sup some supplies and my newspaper from Waitrose. On my way out, I bumped into my neighbour who I was particularly pleased to see as we have not coincided for a week or so now and I know that he is gradually recuperating after knee replacement surgery. For good measure, his wife is due to have a hip replaced perhaps next week so my neighbours appear to have been in the wars a little as well. Then I put together some bits and pieces from the fridge to make a sort of stir-fry which was potato free (as I have put on a couple of pounds recently which I will shift by cutting back on carbohydrates)  I watched some of the BBC executives being questioned by a House of Commons committee and as this was ‘live’ it was pretty interesting viewing. Earlier, I had accessed some of the liberal American podcasts who have convinced themselves that Trump is deranged and getting worse. They are citing as evidence the fact that it appears that Trump has paid several unscheduled visits to a clinic and has had at least one MRI scan performed, probably on his brain, according to this media who were quoting an ex-White House doctor. My Droitwich friend passes quite close to my house when she comes to pick up her boys from Bromsgrove (public) school and so we agreed a quick 20 minutes which absolutely flashed by. But she had prepared a special lunch of some eggs and beans in a curry sauce which I may have for my tea tonight, or more probably when  return home from Pilates the next day. I am in the business of trawling through past issues of the newspaper to see if any articles are worth saving but there are quite a lot of Christmas offers of various kinds which vie for attention. I have one or two things lined up for me to catch up on, not least the edited highlights of the England vs. Argentina rugby match played over the weekend. Sky Arts are putting on a special programme on the highlights of the life of Pavarotti but at an rather ungodly hour from about 11.pm -1.00pm but I might indulge in some of it before I drift off to sleep this evening. There is an announcement today of a new national holiday which the government are proposing. A new ‘national day’ to honour victims and survivors of terrorism will be added to the calendar from next year, it has been revealed. The annual commemoration will fall on 21st August, and will be marked in a different place each year to recognise the widespread impact of terrorism around the country. It comes after a 12-week public consultation showed 91% supported the plan for a national day, and 84% strongly supported the proposal. But the question of the timing of a new national holiday has to be raised because it is arguable whether 21st August is a suitable date given the proximity to the end of the month August Bank Holiday. Most people would value a national holiday sometime in mid-autumn so there is still a huge, holiday-free gap between August and Christmas.

Yesterday was the end to a very different weekend but a very enjoyable one nonetheless. After her party, my Droitwich friend joined me in the morning and we made ourselves an instant meal of some high quality sausages (regarded  locally as being some of the best available) and some instant mashed potato, made somewhat more palatable using butter, whole cream milk and a couple of eggs. We were both determined to have a pretty lazy day in each other’s company and that we did before she left as her boys were returning home after a weekend away with their father. As we had a rather magnificent breakfast, neither of us felt particularly hungry throughout the day and we just sustained ourselves on bits-and-bobs from the fridge.  In the afternoon, I popped down to Waitrose in order to pick up a copy of my Sunday newspaper but was not surprised to see that they were all sold out, So I trekked onto our local garage and my luck seemed to be in because I picked up the very last copy. Then on returning home, I cooked my friend and I a very traditional English meal. Throughout the day, I had a ham joint slowly cooking in the slow cooker and I parboiled some carrots which together with some petit pois, would be given a quick hot roasting in oil with a dollop of honey added to glaze the carrots. My friend had not tasted the new kale called ‘Cavolo Nero’ so I showed her how this was to be prepared and then after some washing it only needs about six minutes in the microwave. I prepared a fairly thick onion gravy to which the slices of ham were added and then we partook of a very traditional ‘meat and two veg’ in the late afternoon before she departed for her own home later on.  My friend had long standing social commitments with groups of friends in London for the next two weekends so the pleasant weekend we have spent together is not likely to be repeated for about another three weekends but we will still grab the opportunities to have quick get-togethers as and when the occasion arises over the next few days. The TV shows we had watched were not necessarily my first choice: ‘Get me Out of Here – I’m a celebrity’ on ITV but it was reasonably entertaining.

The Ukrainian situation is fast evolving. Alarmed by the one sidedness of the American-Russian plan, the Europeans have put forward a 28 point peace plan of their own. Perhaps surprisingly, the Americans have indicated that they are prepared to countenance a degree of flexibility and there is recognition that all proposed plans need to evolve. The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is indicating both a degree of pragmatism and also some optimism that that there has been substantial progress in discussions over the future of Ukraine. Although it looks like fairly early days yet, the shape of a deal might be that the Ukraine gives up the portions of its state already overrun by the Russians but that Nato and the US will provide some sort of guarantees against further invasions or incursions by Russia. Although Russia is slowly gaining territory, international sanctions are biting and it could be that both sides have got a little war-weary and just want the war to end. There is a long way to go yet, but it looks as though the log jam over negotiations is slowly starting to break up.
 
The coming week is bound to be dominated in the UK political scene by the forthcoming budget. It seems likely that the so-called stealth taxes will remain, by not allowing the levels at which people start to pay tax to rise, then the total amount of ‘take’ from income tax increases, albeit at a rather smaller rate. Taxes, and particularly taxes on income, presents difficulties for all of the political parties, On the right of the political spectrum, taxes are regarded as a disincentive to savings and investment and there is a desire to have a low tax-smaller state spending society. But this has political dangers not least because of the nation’s commitment to the NHS and, to a lesser extent, those parts of the welfare state seen as spent on those ‘deserving’ it, such as pensioners. So, in practice, the political right would not dare to cut taxes too far as the corresponding reduction in welfare spending might spell electoral suicide. On the political left, there is a natural tendency to rase taxes to finance the welfare state but equally there is a recognition that international currency markets do not have to be spooked by state spending seen as excessive and the political left feel that they have to prove that they are not fiscally incompetent by not controlling the overall level of government spending. But there are radical measures that need to be undertaken to reform the UK’s extraordinarily tax system with seemingly high levels of tax offset by reliefs, allowances and thresholds. One of these would be to tax most of us by the land we occupy which would mean that wealthy land owners and the owners of very large houses would contribute more to the Exchequer. Another reform would be to radically reform business rates and, indeed, domestic rates that have needed some revisions for years but no government would get around to it. Another reform, that would never happen in the UK, There is always the possibility as well that there are new and, as yet, unexploited services that could be taxed. For example a £1 delivery charge on each item would yield about 750-800 millions a year, before extra taxes on Amazon itself were moderated. Rather than raise taxes, there is always the possibility that spending by the state, and particularly on welfare budgets, needs to be a prime focus. One way of saving money is to make the ‘triple lock’ into a ‘double lock’ for pensioners and, in view of the fact, that they have done pretty well over the past few years compared with the rest of the population. As for the ‘war on waste’, if there had been any very evident sources of waste of public money, this has almost certainly been found and then eliminated during the years of austerity we have had for the past decade or so. Those in regular contact with social service departments will know how ‘hollowed out’ these departments have been over the past few years but the massively increasing Universal Credit budget is not an easy problem to resolve given the degree of mental illness now in evidence since the COVID-19  epidemic.

When I awoke yesterday, it was about 6.00am but ClassicFM was playing the 2nd movement of Mozart’s Piano Concerto No. 20 so I luxuriated in a warm bed whilst this was played plus some Holst and other pleasant music before I actually got up at just after 7.00am to a house that seemed remarkably less cold than in the last few days. Now that I have a fully functioning central heating boiler, this is not really surprising but welcome. I suspect that we shall have one last week of ‘non-Christmas’ music before ClassicFM will start to let rip on Monday, 1st December to signal the start of the festive season. However, this theory was soon to be confounded because as I was exercising and listening to ClassicFM, the presenter announced that the Christmas music was due to commence on Tuesday, 25th as it was one month to go before Christmas Day itself. I am reminding myself that I may need to make some preparations if we are going to go ahead and have a party for some of Meg’s one time carers as we did so successfully last year.  The political news this morning is dominated by the news that Majorie Taylor-Greene who was one of Donald Trump’s most fervent supporters but became, after the delay in the release of the Epstein files, one of his fiercest critics has decided to resign her seat in Congress. According to the US constitution, an election has to take place so either a special election will be called or the seat may be kept vacant until the primaries in 2026. The seat is staunchly Republican but the really interesting question is whether her seat will be filled by a MAGA (‘Make America Great Again’) candidate or whether the Republicans will choose a non-MAGA Republican. This might be an interesting indication of the current mood within the country. We also have interesting political questions starting to bubble up this week as a make-or-break and much anticipated budget is due to be delivered within the next few days. Seventeen months into office, Keir Starmer has the lowest popularity ratings of any prime minister since records began, and there is now open conversation in his party about whether he is right to lead Labour into the next general election, and he is heading into a very tempestuous budget in which he might end up breaking manifesto pledges to working people. Being abroad so much has eared him the soubriquet of ‘Never Here, Keir’ and whilst it is true that Prime Ministers can help to broker trade deals which the country badly needs, his absence when the country is facing so may problems is being noted. During the day, much of the High Street in Bromsgrove is being devoted to a ‘Christmas Fayre’ type event which means that parking space may well be at a premium. So I will probably wander down slowly and have a coffee in Waitrose before I wander along the High Street stopping ‘en route’ to buy some specialist sausages which I had promised my Droitwich friend as a special treat when I see her in the next day or so. Having thought that this month of November needed to be endured rather than enjoyed, I am pleasantly surprised by how quickly the month has flown by. Although I had been invited to a special concert to be given in Wolverhampton on Saturday, I have decided to forego this as navigating through a town and districts I do not know on a cold winter evening may be too much of a stretch for me at the moment.

Although it was a fairly cold and rainy day, I decided to walk down into town thinking the car parks would be full to bursting and the streets very busy. But in the event, the streets were fairly quiet. I looked in the cafe where I occasionally meet with some friends and not seeing them there called in the local butchers to get some high quality sausages for lunchtime tomorrow. Then I called in at Wetherspoons and saw a couple of friends I have not seen for some time whilst having one of their cut price bacon and egg breakfast butties.After lunch, I watched an episode of ‘Endeavour’ which I think I had seen about twice before but was always worth another viewing. Later in the afternoon, I treated myself to the latest episode of the David Olusoga series on ‘Empire’ and then awaited for the arrival of my friend who is going to use my house as a changing room before she goes off to a huge ball, organised by her son’s school where she was going to eat, drink and dance away the evening. Then we shall treat ourselves to a sausage brunch at some time during the following day.

Donald Trump is up to his usual negotiating tactic with the war in Ukraine. Having hatched up a plan with the Russians, he has given the Ukrainians a few days to accept it or otherwise all American support for the Ukraine would be withdrawn. But the Ukrainians and the Europeans have reacted badly to all of this and pushed back against the Trump plan. Donald Trump has said his current peace plan for Ukraine is not his final offer. Speaking outside the White House to reporters, the US president was asked if the 28-point plan was the ‘final offer’.’No, not by far We would like to get the peace, it should have happened a long time ago. The Ukraine war with Russia should have never happened. If I was president it would have never happened. We are trying to get it ended. One way or another, we have to get it ended.’ At the end of the day, the Ukrainians are not likely to concede land to Russia and a massive loss of sovereignty and will probably fight on, with the support of the Europeans and so the war will probably grind on, The Russians, though, are gradually winning the ground way having many more men and munitions to the Ukrainians who are fighting almost to the last man.

As the Christmas season is almost upon us, we are threatened with rail strikes over the Christmas period. I went scurrying to my booking forms but so far I believe that I might not be directly effected but one can never be absolutely sure because after a strike, it is possible that trains and their crews are in the ‘wrong’ places so the disruption could spread to non strike days. It looks as though ross Country Trains (the service I hope to use) is to be affected so I will have to keep my fingers crossed.

Yesterday the report into the COVID enquiry was published and it could reasonably be described as scathing. All four UK governments failed to appreciate the scale of the threat posed by COVID-19 or the urgency of the response the pandemic required, a damning report published on Thursday has claimed. Baroness Heather Hallett, the chair of the inquiry, described the response to the pandemic as ‘too little, too late’. Tens of thousands of lives could have been saved during the first wave of COVID-19 had a mandatory lockdown been introduced a week earlier, the inquiry also found. Noting how a ‘lack of urgency’ made a mandatory lockdown ‘inevitable’, the report references modelling data to claim there could have been 23,000 fewer deaths during the first wave in England had it been introduced a week earlier. The UK government first introduced advisory restrictions on 16 March 2020, including self-isolation, household quarantine and social distancing. Had these measures been introduced sooner, the report states, the mandatory lockdown which followed from 23 March might not have been necessary at all.The report says lockdown could have been avoided if steps such as social distancing and isolating those with symptoms along with members of their household had been introduced earlier than mid-March 2020. But by the time ministers took action it was already too late and a lockdown was inevitable, it says. By the end of January 2020 it ‘should have been clear that the virus posed a serious and immediate threat’, while February 2020 was ‘a lost month’ and the lack of urgency overall in government was ‘inexcusable’, the inquiry found. Voluntary measures were brought in on 16 March 2020, followed by the full stay-at home lockdown seven days late. But lockdown a week earlier could have saved thousands of lives. Bringing in lockdown a week earlier on 16 March would have meant 23,000 fewer deaths in England in the first wave, modelling suggests. This would have equated to 48% fewer deaths in the first wave. But the report does not suggest the overall death toll for the pandemic – 227,000 in the UK by the time it was declared over in 2023 – would have been reduced by an earlier lockdown. That is very difficult to tell, as it depends on a variety of other factors that could have reduced or increased the number of deaths as the pandemic progressed. Even at the time, there was commentary to the effect that the government appeared to be dithering and, of course, a Conservative government led by Boris Johnson was forced to consider bringing in a dramatic increase in state activity over the lives of ordinary citizens. But this is a case where political ideology took precedence over action to forestall the pandemic. It is true to say that all governments all over the globe were forced into activities and policies to meet a threat which was totally out of their experience and where the scientific evidence was still evolving. But there are families all over the country who lost their loved ones and were not even allowed under the funeral restrictions to bid their loved ones a proper and dignified farewell. At the time, Meg and I were walking down to Sanders Park just over a kilometre away from us and we witnessed, on at least two occasions, elderly people being transported into the backs of ambulances and tearful relatives having to wave goodbye to their relatives as the ambulance departed. There was collateral damage as well. Our good friend, Clive, who played his trumpet at out 50th wedding anniversary celebrations, was receiving some chemotherapy which held his advancing leukaemia at bay but when this treatment ceased, as Clive could no longer attend the outpatients department of our local hospital, then his life was cut short but not by COVID itself.

We had a bit of domestic drama this morning with which we could have done without. My Droitwich friend and I thought that the house felt a little cold and when we investigated why this should be the case, we discovered that the central heating boiler was completely shut down and unresponsive, with not even a display on the display panel. After urgent consultation with my son who was down in Watford, we checked over all of the evident things such as the water pressure being too low and making the boiler shut down automatically to checking the RCB (Residual Circuit Breaker) to see whether a circuit had been flipped. Our normal central heating firm who are just down the road and who actually installed the boiler seem less and less responsive these days so  my son gave me the contact details of a central heating engineer who works on his own and who was excellent at servicing my son’s installation.  After a telephone call and the transmission of some of my details via a text message, I was delighted that within a couple of hours the engineer turned up and, as it turned out, he was scheduled to make another visit in a village just down the road. He diagnosed a blown fuse and then whilst he had the boiler all made accessible, he gave it a service and could not find any evident cause for the blown fuse. He checked out the other parts of our ‘combi system’ and, in general, gave a service that could only be described as excellent in every way. As my friend and I were feeling pretty cold as the boiler had been out of action for at least 24 hours and the whole house had cooled down on one of the coldest days of the year, my friend who is an excellent cook and enjoys cooking,  made a super brunch for the two of us which actually helped to sustain us for most of the day. My friend and I had to re-schedule our work and non-work activities for the rest of the day so I arranged some heating via one of our portable oil heaters in our dining room and my friend could carry on doing her professional work for most of the rest of the day until the time for her to pick up one of her sons from the school down the road. My friend had had a rather difficult video-call meeting with an American ‘boss’ of hers who seemed to be making all kinds of unreasonable demands so I managed to calm my friend down after she was pretty incandescent after her transatlantic calls. So this is the reason why we are such good friends because we help each other to negotiate some of the annoying tribulations that come our way. For the next two weekends, my friend has other commitments in London with work colleagues but we are seizing the opportunities that are open to us so we made some plans to see each other over the weekend to which I am evidently looking forward.

Yesterday we woke up to a temperature of -2º but I think that the wind may be very slightly less strong and thus it may feel a tad less cold – but it is still bitter. For a reason that escapes me, I started to think about the term ‘yummy mummy’ and wondered whether it was a derogatory term or one with which some women would quite enjoy. I am going to try it out on my Droitwich friend when next I see her and she how she feels about it and indeed whether she feels flattered or insulted. From what I can gather, in its neutral sense it refers to mothers who are still sexually attractive, fashionable and take a pride in their appearance and therefore provide a sharp contrast to the ‘dowdy’ image sometimes associated with motherhood. On the other hand, I did come across one interpretation with decidedly negative interpretations which is funny: ‘Yummy mummies come from Primrose Hill, they seat their bratty children in pushchairs the size of cars, they never wear sunglasses except on top of their head, wear scary amounts of beige, bring their own carrot sticks and celery sticks to the pub, and are oblivious to all other people inside and outside their field of vision.’In any case, this term has entirely dropped out of popular culture and probably the vast majority of the younger generation would not know how o react to the term. Turning to much more serious matters, Donald Trump has now signed into law the directive that all of the Epstein files should be released by the FBI within 20 days. Some of the details that must be released are extraordinarily wide ranging and would include flight logs and travel record of any aircraft, vessel or vehicle operated by Epstein, individuals named or referenced in connection with Epstein’s criminal activities, civil settlements, immunity or plea agreements, or investigations and even material relating to Ghislaine Maxwell. In passing the legislation, Trump went on one of his usual rants casting blame upon the Democrats whenever he could and repeating the extraordinary claim that the whole was a ‘hoax’. But we shall certainly see prominent Democrats exposed as well as Republicans so this might prove to be an unwelcome Christmas present for many members of the American elite. On the domestic political front, Westminster is bracing for the publication of the COVID inquiry’s module two report, which is about political decision-making during the pandemic. It is expected to focus not just on the decisions of key politicians, but also those of key officials, many of whom are still in government. Again, this is expected to make uncomfortable reading for many but it is taking far too long for this necessary post-COVID to take place and it could be that another pandemic overwhelms all of us before we have learnt the lessons of the last one. As I did my shopping the day before, it will be interesting to see how today pans out and how many of us will turn up for our weekly ‘Tai Chi’ class. Thee are about a dozen of us with about three men and the rest women and most people find it extremely relaxing (although I do not think I am quite at that stage yet).  Co-ordinating the breathing with the movements is a skill to be mastered but no doubt this will come in time.  I found that today I was a little further forward on my ‘Tai Chi’ journey because I observed closely the particular move that our tutor was making and then closed my eyes and did what felt right for me (which is what she instructed me to do at the conclusion of our class last week) After the class was over, my banker friend was not in evidence for which I was secretly relieved as I needed to go to the garage to check out my type pressures. I had an instrument reading which told me that my type pressures were low so I went to the garage and checked over the pressures. The trouble is that even though you may have re-inflated the tyres, the system does not automatically remove the ‘low type pressure warning’ system from the console so it feels as though you have not done anything. I know that there will be a setting somewhere to turn this warning ‘off’ but I have not managed to find it yet – I know that in the Volvo, I had the same issue and it was a little complicated to find. I got back home after my class because I knew that my Droitwich friend was due to call around and she was going to work on her laptop in my house, which arrangement ]we had set up the other day. Then the hairdresser called around which I actually had remembered from my planning board. Later on in the day, my chiropodist called around, again via a pre-planned appointment so all in all, this was a day of comings and goings. My friend had to go off to a doctor’s appointment whilst I was left at home as a sort of ‘house husband’ starting to cook the simple meal which we had scoped out for ourselves earlier in the day. Later in the day over our meal we can no doubt unburden ourselves a little to each other which is why we are good friends and enjoy each other’s company.

There is a report circulating that the USA and Russia between them have been negotiating a plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This plan has been hatched up without any reference to the Ukrainians or any other European nation and looks as though it is going to ‘reward’ Russia by granting Russia swathes of territory over and above that which has been occupied by it in any case. This arrangement cannot possibly work and, no doubt, the Ukrainians will say that they have to fight on, with the support of Western European allies but with America totally taking the Russian’s  side. Even if this plan were to be enforced on the Ukraine, it is not at all clear that there is any force that would discourage the Russians from seizing even more territory as the Americans would never put the boots of their soldiers ‘on the ground’ between the two opponents. So we have all of the makings of a conflict that may well rumble on for years but one has the horrible premonition that there is no way that Russia will get much of what it wants, despite the cost to the Russian economy and military.

Yesterday, I woke up to a really cold and icy day and although the temperature is about 2° at the moment, the BBC weather app tells me that with the icy wind, the temperature will feel about -7° because of the wind-chill factor. Overnight, we have heard of the extraordinary developments in the USA. After Trump’s volte-face (about face) over the release of the Epstein files, the House of Representatives  voted in an extraordinary vote of 427:1 to release the files. Now the only source of opposition could be the Senate but in view of the near unanimous vote of the House of Representatives the Senate deployed a special procedure to also pass the bill but without a vote I think the Senate majority leader puts this to the Senate and if there are no objections then the bill is assumed to have been passed) So now that it looks as though the bill to release the Epstein files should be on the desk of Donald Trump within hours. For his part, Trump has publicly committed to signing the bill so suddenly after weeks of opposition by Trump and the Republicans, we may soon seen the release of the files. Actually ‘soon’ is a relative word because the FBI has 30 days to release the documents and it could be that a certain amount of legitimate redaction has to take place e.g. in the case of other victims or cases still currently before the courts. The Democrats cannot afford to be in too celebratory a mood because many senior Democrats, possibly including ex-President Bill Clinton himself, probably feature somewhere in the files. The media are calling this the ‘Epstein elite’ and it casts a sorry light that so many rich and powerful Americans are caught up in this huge political scandal. Not particularly subscribing to conspiracy theories, one is forced to wonder whether Epstein was actually murdered in gaol (officially his death was recorded as suicide) to prevent further revelations. On the domestic front, the Scots are celebrating having secured a win over Denmark and hence a place in the football World Cup for the first time since 1998. The match was shown live last night but I was occupied elsewhere and did not watch it. Some extraordinary goals were scored which were really spectacular. The Scots took the lead after three minutes with a bicycle kick (the player is facing he wrong way but kicks it blind, backwards, towards the goal) The Scots needed to win but at full time, the score was 2:2 and the Scots needed a win to qualify. The Scots then scored two goals in injury time to win the match but the last goal was extraordinary as well. As the Danes were pressing hard for an equaliser, the Danish goalkeeper advanced out of his goal and a Scottish substitute player saw that the goalkeeper was off his line and with an extraordinary kick from the half way line, actually lobbed the goalkeeper and scored the final goal. Of course, the Scots may not progress very far in the World Cup but just to be one of the World Cup finalists is a sort of victory in itself.

In the morning, after I had breakfasted I made my way down to the Methodist Centre where I availed myself of a toasted teacake and a cup of coffee. As it was so very cold this morning, I made the usual jape about it being cold enough to ‘freeze the balls of a brass monkey’ and then delighted in telling people from whence this explanation arose (although some complain that even this conventional explanation involving cannon balls and sailing ships is actually erroneous.) After I returned home, I cooked myself a lunch from within the depths of the freezer which happened to be a couple of spare ribs and some potato. I added some petit pois  and an onion bahjee left over from the weekend. The afternoon was quite a lazy one as the cold weather always to make me feel very tired. I received a telephone message from my Droitwich friend and, to cut a long story short, it looks as though she might be able to pop by sometime tomorrow. As she brings her laptop with her, she can utilise my broadband connection to do little bursts of work which we intersperse with some chat and some cooking. I have joked with her that we are the living  reenactment of the famous wartime film ‘Brief Encounter’ filmed on Carnforth (Lancaster) railway station, where the principal characters seized whatever opportunities they could for their ‘Brief Encounter’ (which were usually in the station buffet) So I decided to go out and do my normal weekly shop in the afternoon to release some time from tomorrow morning. The store was so nice and quiet that I might be tempted to do this on Wednesday afternoons in the future.

A new wind record has been set for Britain, with enough electricity generated from turbines to power 22 million homes, the system operator has said. The mark of 22,711 megawatts (MW) was set at 7.30pm on 11 November, beating the previous high for wind power generation of 22,253 MW set on 18 December last year. At the time, wind was providing 43.6% of Britain’s electricity, enough to keep around three-quarters of British homes powered, the National Energy System Operator (Neso) said. The country had experienced windy conditions, particularly in the north of England and Scotland. This must be a significant milestone in our move away from fossil fuels (such as il, coal and gas) as a way of generating the country’s  power needs. Bu generating the electricity might be one thing but getting it to where it is needed is quite another. Given the climate and topography of the UK much power is generate din the more northerly regions but it needs to be redistributed towards the more populous south. But our National grid system is badly antiquated and is in sore need of much more investment. The National Grid needs more investment to upgrade its infrastructure for the energy transition, with estimates suggesting that up to £60 billion is needed by 2030 to modernise the grid, connect renewable energy sources, and meet future demand. While National Grid has announced its own large-scale investment plans, organisations like the National Energy System Operator (NESO) and industry experts argue that existing investment levels have not kept pace with the needs for decarbonisation.

Yesterday did feel a lot colder when I leapt out of my bed at 6.45 conscious of the fact that there were several domestic jobs, not least the clothes washing that needed to be done.  But as I eschew ironing in all of its manifestations, I always buy shirts these days which used to be called ‘drip dry’ but the modern terminology used, I believe by Marks and Spencer, is ‘Easy Care’ which means that once I take them out of the dryer they are pretty crease free. I then hang them over the back of a chair in the kitchen to encourage the few remaining creases to drop out and then transfer them to our drying room (a magnificent little room near to my upstairs bedroom which is always warm because it houses a large hot water cylinder as part of out ‘Combi’ domestic heating system and it is excellent to give clothes their final drying off). I also store my towels and sheets on the wooden shelving in this little room and it is one of the really good features of this house which I would sadly miss if and when I move elsewhere.

In the House of Commons yesterday the Home Secretary gave a barn-storming performance when she announced a radical change of policy to overcome the ‘migrants boats’ crisis. She also used the most unparliamentary language telling the Reform party leader, Nigel Farage to ‘sod off’- she may have been asked by the speaker to withdraw this unparliamentary language but once uttered the impact (and the political damage) has already been done. But it is fair comment to add that the change in policy announced by Shabana Mahmood contain sweeping changes to the UK’s asylum system, including rowing back on guarantees of financial support. The tough proposals have been welcomed by the Tories and Reform and left some Labour MPs feeling uneasy.  Ms Mahmood announced a new direction in Labour’s plan to crack down on asylum seekers. The ‘restoring order and control’ plan includes

– The removal of more families with children – either voluntarily through cash incentives up to £3,000, or by force
– Quadrupling the time successful asylum seekers must wait to claim permanent residency in the UK, from five years to 20
– Removing the legal obligation to provide financial support to asylum seekers, so those with the right to work but choose not to will receive no support
– Setting up a new appeals body to significantly speed up the time it takes to decide whether to refuse an asylum application
– Reforming how the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) is interpreted in immigration cases;
– Banning visas for countries refusing to accept deporteesAnd the establishment of new safe and legal refugee routes.

The parliamentary arithmetic is going to be interesting here. Although the `Labour party after its huge election victory has a majority of about 148 seats, there is bound to be a huge rebellion particularly from those newly elected MPs representing constituencies in the North and Midlands where the majorities are small and there is a higher concentration of ethnic minority voters (more sympathetic to the plight of illegal immigrants). Actually, although the term ‘illegal immigrants’ is in widespread use across the whole of the political spectrum, including the Labour party, it is not technically accurate.  The term ‘illegal immigrant’ is inaccurate and misleading because no human being is illegal; rather, they may be undocumented or have ‘irregular’ status. Many people are in a country without legal authorisation due to complex immigration systems, visa overstays, or seeking asylum, which are not always a result of criminal intent. For example, someone who enters on a valid visa and overstays is considered to have an ‘irregular’ status, not an ‘illegal’ one. But politicians of all political colours continue to use the term ‘illegal’ because it strikes a chord with large swathes of the electorate.

I was just about well and truly up and some of my early morning routines undertaken when my son called around and we exchanged news of or various social activities and comings-and-goings over the last few days. It was good to see him as we had been in contact for a few days but later in the week he is going to visit some of his wife’s relatives and sometime after, he and my daughter-in-law both a brief holiday booked in Spain. He had not departed for very long when my Droitwich friend called around and whilst she worked on he laptop I got myself properly up and dressed. Then my friend worked a little on her laptop, we chatted a lot and then made ourselves a brunch  based on eggs. One of  my friend’s saucepans had completely come to a natural end and was only fit to be thrown away but fortunately,  I have in stock some none-stick saucepans which are rarely used so I was happy to donate some of these excess pans to a home where they would be used extensively. Then my friend and I both had to dash off, she to her yoga class and me to my Pilates class but no doubt we can snatch a (cooking together) opportunity in a few days’ time. After I returned from my Pilates class,  I made myself a quick lunch opening a tin of lamb and vegetable soup (more like a stew actually) which made for a quick lunch. After lunch, I unintentionally started to watch one of those ‘Escape to the Country’ programmes much beloved of afternoon TV producers. But this aroused my curiosity because a couple were looking for cottages in and around the small villages in and around Harrogate in North Yorkshire which was the area in which I grew up and therefore knew reasonably well. Some of the cottages were stunning and were generally furnished very tastefully to  reflect modern styles. Although the programme presenters always tease the audience and the potential viewers/buyers  with the revelation of the asking price, I was amazed to discover that some bijou cottages were actually on the market for anything up to £100k less than I thought they were worth. Prices of houses have risen sharply in what is termed the ‘Golden Triangle’ of York, Leeds and Harrogate but perhaps the houses on the TV programme were slightly outside this ‘Golden Triangle’ but you can see what couple from London are tempted to buy because the price might be one quarter that they would have to pay in the London area.

I awoke to a cold, clear November morning but with the knowledge that the next few days were promising to be even colder. But at least snow is not in prospect for us at the moment although it may be for the Scots. Meanwhile, I can reflect back happily into a weekend filled with beneficial social activity as I had visited my University of  Winchester friends on Friday but then had the benefit of the company of my Droitwich friend  over the weekend, so this should set me up for the week ahead.

In an extraordinary volte-face, Donald Trump has urged Republicans to vote for the release of files related to Jeffrey Epstein – a reversal of his previous opposition to the move. The president said on Truth Social that politicians from his own party should back the move. One email described Mr Trump as ‘that dog that has not barked… Virginia spent hours at my house with him’. The president has always denied any wrongdoing and said he fell out with the disgraced financier way before his crimes against underage girls came to light. It is very hard to discern what has caused Trump to change his mind here unless it is a recognition that in the long run, the truth will out and therefore it is better to back a move for the release of the files. So it looks as though the House of Representatives (analogous to the House of Commons) may vote to release the files but that is not the end of the matter because there is still a Senate dominated Senate where the result of any vote is much less clear. But in an interesting reflection of how American democracy works, it may well be that any Republican senators who vote for the release of the Epstein files only do so because they are coming to the end of their term of office and do not fear a future rejection by  an electorate where MAGA (Make America Great Again) is still a significant force. But there are clear signs that the MAGA movement itself is split on the issue. A growing number of Republican lawmakers and loyal Trump supporters also want the documents made public. Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, a staunch MAGA loyalist, backed the petition that proposed holding the vote and provoked a vicious backlash from the president – who labelled her a traitor and a ranting lunatic, all of this despite the fact that in the past she was an ultra-loyal Trump supporter. Meanwhile on the UK political scene, the nation is going to witness almost draconian reforms to our immigration system modelled upon Denmark’s approach and a tax raising budget is only now about a fortnight away. Each morning, I listen to ClassicFM and the debate is raising its head as to exactly when the season of Christmas music will start. I suspect that the day will suggest itself as 1st December falls upon a Monday and this might be the appropriate point at which suddenly we will be exposed to a torrent of carols. I think that in the past, ClassicFM has labelled itself as the ‘home of Christmas music’ so we may have a fortnight of respite yet.

As the day was a beautiful fine day but the weather was cold and crisp, I decided almost on the spur of the moment to go to Droitwich (which I used to visit with Meg in any case) and enjoy a walk by the canal.In addition of course, by parking on the Waitrose car park I could pick up my newspaper and get my ‘free’ cup of coffee  as well. So this I did and had a walk alongside the canal (or it may be a canalised portion of a river called the ‘Salwarpe’). This was pleasant enough but the murkiness of the water and one dead fish floating near the surface led me to conclude that the river is probably as polluted as most of the other rivers in the country.  So I had given myself a little excursion for the day  so I came home and texted/phoned my friend before I consumed the remains of the chicken curry prepared over the weekend. for my midday meal. Tomorrow is the day when I undertake my Pilates class and I am hoping that once again we have a fairly clear and fine day, although I know it will be cold. I want to give the back lawn its final, final cut of the season and to ‘winterise’ the mower which means ensuring that the old oil is removed (and this can only be done when the engine is hot) and that no fuel remains in the tank.  I have had this Swedish mulching mower longer than ay other mower that I have ever possessed but every year it is a statement of faith. A crucial spring governing the speed of the mower has become detached and long lost but I have an arrangements with what I call ‘girly bands ‘(used by girls to keep their hair tidy of they have longish hair) and this arrangement has worked all right during the course of this year. It may seem odd to mow the grass for a final time at this time of year but it as the advantage that any dried leaves on the surface of the lawn are chopped into smaller pieces which worms can then drag down into the soil to help fertilise and replenish the lawn.

A podcaster well known to American audiences named Dillon, predicted the president will now spend the remainder of his second term ‘talking about the ballroom that he is building at the White House’ for which he controversially demolished the East Wing. Trump ‘will trail off, he’ll get older, he’s adorning the White House in gold,’ he added, also predicting that Trump’s once association with the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein is ‘gonna suck the oxygen out of a lot of this.’ So there is now a degree of speculation that already we are talking about a ‘lame-duck presidency’ even though we still have three years of Presidency yet to run.  It is probable, though, that Trump’s age, over-weight status and generally poor health record may well force an early end to the second term of his presidency. And, of course we ‘Trump Mark II’ or the current vice-president J D Vance poised to take over.