We awoke yesterday morning to the new geopolitical realities facing us. It is now apparent that the Iranian’s chief asset in the war against USA and Israel is to keep control of the Straits of Hormuz, a critical choke point for oil tankers. Donald Trump having told the UK that it can send its ships home as there is no point sending naval assets into the theatre of war when the conflict is practically over is now asking, or rather threatening, the NATO alliance to assist in keeping the Straits of Hormuz open. The fact that one Chinese tanker and possibly, according to rumours, one Indian tanker have made their way through the Straits tends to suggest that the area is not mined. However, it is evident that supplies of oil through this route may be reduced to a trickle which implies high prices and possible rationing lies ahead of us. Before nations engage in war, it is nearly always the case that the relevant military planners have made extensive war plans or have ‘war gamed’ likely scenarios but this conflict appears to show that no military planning or preparations were undertaken by the Americans at all. So we find ourselves in a situation in which America having wrought a certain amount of havoc across the Middle East is now calling for help to resolve the situation. But is evident that the geopolitics of the area have been changed irrevocably by the way as the gulf states of Bahrain, Oman, Qatar and others who have tried to act as mediators have now had it demonstrated to them that the US cannot be called upon to protect them and is anything other than a reliable ally. But really tricky decisions lie in the path of NATO and other European states as they try to resolve how they can deploy military resources to attempt to keep oil supplies flowing whilst not inviting any retaliatory counter attacks. Meanwhile, Israel has no restraining American arm to restrain it and is embarking upon a dream of avenging and eliminating its enemies which is a dream that they have held onto for the past 40 years. Netanyahu’s popularity is high even on the Israeli left and it seems probable that he will seek early elections to consolidate his own political position. Of course, we have seen all of this before. Margaret Thatcher had been one of the most unpopular Prime Ministers of all time at the start of the Falklands/Malvinas war but her popularity soared when victory was assured which is why she went to the polls to secure a thumping election victory immediately after it. So wars can sometimes prove to be exceptionally advantageous for right-leaning political leaders. But the USA case has its own particular features as Trump is threatened over time with rising oil prices, the revelations from the Epstein and his own failing health and which of these factors will prove to be the most decisive will be interesting for future historians to debate.
Yesterday turned out to be a different kind of day. My son having slept here overnight made a journey back to his own flat to check that the kitchen fitting procedure was proceeding satisfactorily and so far it appeared to be on track. My son returned from his own house and then the three of us walked down the hill and had a coffee in the Waitrose dispensing area after which we walked home. I had a fairly light lunch of fish-on-bread and then my major commitment of the day was to go down and meet an U3A (University of the 3rd Age) acquaintance who had emailed me (after we had exchanged business cards about a month ago) and we decided to have a catch up in a local coffee bar. My new-found friend had worked for sixteen years in the USA and had travelled extensively across European societies so we had a certain cosmopolitan outlook on life. She is going to attend the same Spanish class as am I in about a week’s time and, of course, the more members a group attracts the more viable it becomes and less liable to fold for lack of support. The following day there is going to be a sort of AGM of the U3A membership so, having attended Pilates I shall turn up half an hour late but till hope I can be squeezed in somewhere. After all the name of the game these days is to maximise our social contacts where we can and I suspect that my new-found friend and I are of a like mind in this respect. So the next couple of days might prove to be quite busy, particularly as my son and daughter-in-law (both suffering from extremely heavy colds!) are I are out quite a lot.
An interesting stand-off is taking place between the European NATO allies and Donald Trump. Having insulted the UK and annoyed with Britain for not immediately joining in the war against Iran, Trump is now calling for help to keep open the Straits of Hormuz and indicating to other NATO members that the consequences for them will be dire if other European countries do not fall behind the American war effort. European countries are saying that ‘it is not our war’ and I would hope and suspect that Europe might be playing a long game. Rising oil prices and Trump’s evidently failing health might prove his nemesis within a month or so and therefore it might be rational for European leaders (including the UK) to play for time in the present conflict. In the evening, I have some interesting TV programmes by way of diversion. Firstly, there is going to be an examination of the pernicious effects of social media which I think is well worth a watch followed by a comedy programme. It is going to be one of those nights when I make sure I have the electric blanket on and then get to bed in plenty of time to watch the programmes I want, knowing that if I fall asleep in the meantime, this is all to the good. I find these days that missing the main new bulletin is not necessarily a bad thing as I much prefer to watch the analysis programs that take place on BBC2 and on Sky News from 10.30 onwards.