Two particular facets of the horrible conflict in the Middle East are becoming apparent to us this morning. The first of these is the absolute scale of the devastation that is being wrought upon the economies of states in the area by attacking oil and gas pressing facilities, one by-product of which is that the cost of has supplies in the UK has already doubled since the start of the conflict. Defining oil and as reprocessing, the life blood of the Middle East as military facilities, liable to be open to enemy attack is opening a Pandora’s box and both the Israelis and the Iran have just crossed this threshold, to the extent that even Donald Trump is expressing at some alarm at this development. The second nature of the conflict is that Israel now feels no restraining hand of the USA as has been customary over the decades. Netanyahu has stated he was going to ignore the Americans anyway. In the past few decades, the Americans have always let the Israelis know that America could cut off Israel at the knees immediately by withholding all military supplies and economic aid but the Israelis have evidently judged that with the present turmoil in the American polity they can do whatever they want without restraint. The Economist recently published a long analysis detailing just how unrestrained Israel is becoming. This new, hegemonic Israel is the product in part of the lingering trauma of October 7th. Before the massacre Israel sought to avoid all-out conflict, contenting itself with periodic strikes against its foes, to assassinate threatening leaders or destroy sophisticated weapons. When it went to war, as it did several times against Hamas, it kept the wars short. The goal was to deter and weaken its adversaries, not to obliterate them.In hindsight, many Israeli generals and spies see that policy as naive. They are no longer willing to tolerate threats on their borders—even hypothetical ones. Syria’s new rulers have been clear that they want a peaceful relationship with their neighbour (and after a decade of civil war, they are in no position to fight the Middle East’s strongest army). That has not stopped Israel from seizing even more Syrian territory, to protect the land it seized in 1967. For Israel’s hard right, though, the goal is not merely to protect the country but to expand it. They have dreamed for years of rebuilding Jewish settlements in Gaza, which were evacuated in 2005, and annexing the West Bank. Some fantasise about a ‘Greater Israel’ that stretches from the Nile to the Euphrates. They are a minority in Israel, but they are an increasingly powerful one. Mr Netanyahu may not share their yearning for a biblical kingdom, but he needs their support for his earthly goals. He wants to stay in power, and that requires keeping his extremist allies on side. There is another development as well concerning the health of Donald Trump. Although technically, psychiatrists are breaking their codes of ethics by diagnosing at a distance, there now seems to be growing consensus that Trump is suffering from a malignant narcissism which accounts for much of is behaviour. Added to this, details are started to emerge of Trump’s evident dementia as it has become public knowledge that he has had more than one ‘annual’ check on his health status and this has included both an MRI scan and also cognitive tests which are almost certainly conducted as Trump’s medical team can see the signs of Trump’s dementia worsening almost by the day. My feeling is that is a combination of the oil price rise on the one hand and Trump’s health status that will occasion his downfall well before the conclusion of a second term.
Later on in the morning, I made a journey down into town by car and then introduced my son and daughter-in-law to the delights of the ‘Gifts of Love’ outlet which sells artefacts and supplies coffee and cake to raise funds for a local horse sanctuary. After this we wandered back slowly upon the High Street buying one or two things for the collective lunch. After a home-made soup, it was such a nice afternoon that I spent a certain amount of time reading the newspaper whilst also chatting with my daughter-in-law who was simultaneously enjoying the sunshine. Whilst outside, we bumped into our next-door neighbour who I have not seen for some time now but the three of us have been invited round for tea and cake later on in the week and we seem to have quite a lot to catch upon. Earlier in the afternoon, I had thought of an additional aria that I wished to stitch into my presentation so I located a suitable clip of video on YouTube. We prepared our evening meal together and then settled down to watch some comedy that my family thought I might quite like.
There is a suggestion that Israel my be breaching international law by using white phosphorous in Southern Lebanon. Since October 2023, Sky News has interviewed dozens of residents of southern Lebanon who say they have seen white phosphorus being sprayed on their crops, farmland and houses. A video verified by Sky News, shows an IDF operation in southern Lebanon. Amael Kotlarsk, a weapons expert at defence intelligence company Janes, told Sky News that the substance is white phosphorus. The chemical is used by militaries to create smokescreens or for illumination, as above, but can also start fires, damage crops and cause severe burns. Its indiscriminate use in populated areas is illegal under international law. The evidence for this latest allegation is not 100% proved but there is enough circumstantial evidence that white phosphorous may well be implicated in the war. The people of Lebanon must be used to frequent Israeli invasions by now and Israeli Force Force (IDF) has rolled into much of Southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is widely considered to be better armed, funded, and trained than the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). With significant Iranian support, Hezbollah functions as a ‘state within a state’ with an arsenal of over 150,000 rockets, surpassing the conventional capacity of the official national military, making it the dominant armed force in Lebanon. A total defeat of Hezbollah is unlikely and then it is best thought of as a smart ‘de facto’ government of Lebanon.