The mood in the Middle East has turned from a cautious optimism to one of fear and dread as to what is unfolding. Whatever the peace plan might say, the Israelis have continued with a massive bombardment of Lebanon, killing over 250 in a single day. The Iranians and Pakistanis say that the conflict in Lebanon is an explicit part of the deal but Israel and the USA deny this. We know that in historical terms, the only restraining hand on the military ambitions of Israel has been the USA but this is not now present with the Trump regime seemingly in disarray. Netanyahu has told the world that he has been dreaming of extending a fight into Lebanon against Hezbollah as a dream of his for the last twenty years and he is certainly not going to stop now, whatever the Americans might say. The Iranians for their part are saying that the conflict in Lebanon is clearly part of the ceasefire agreement and until Israel stops its attacks, then the Straits of Hormuz shall remain firmly closed. In any case, selective ships from non-combatant nations are allowed through at a fee reported to be $1 million per tanker which is a lucrative form of income for the Iranians. Meanwhile, the US is saying that they did not agree with the published 10 point peace plan but another ‘secret one’ which was a scaled down version of the 15 point plan (essentially a surrender document) presented to and rejected by the Iranians. So it seems that we are at an absolute stalemate and the Pakistani negotiators have all of their work cut out to resolve the conflict. Although the ceasefire was supposedly agreed, it was never put into effect and the Israelis carried out a huge bombardment without any hint of restraint so it appears that the immediate future is, indeed, quite bleak. Donald Trump is now threatening more strikes against Iran if it fails to restrain Hezbollah but there is no parallel injunction against the Israelis. The American congress is said to be considering a War Powers act to authorise funding for the war but this is unlikely to change the situation. With an unrestrained Israel, one cannot see how this conflict is going to be brought to an end. It is interesting that the Trump regime is demonstrating a sort of ‘buyer’s remorse’ by indicating that they did not agree to the published peace plan (which they say is a fake copied from a Nigerian website) but another, more secret, peace plan. There is so much misinformation flying about that it must be hard for even independent analysts to make sense of an extremely confused situation.
The evening before last, I went out with the ‘Curry Club’ to have a meal with about 16 other U3A members. The meal was good without, in my view, being outstandingly good and the restaurant was packed adding considerably to the noise levels. Unfortunately, I was seated between two elderly male diners neither of whom had any conversation or had much to say for themselves but ate their meals in silence. I must remember on future occasions to try to position myself a little more adroitly to prevent this happening in the future but it not easy when established friends approach a table and sit down next to each other. When got I got home I got together some tea and coffee supplies to take with me and I would estimate that I am at least two thirds packed, with the remainder to be finished off today.
I went down to have my Tai Chi class this morning and this proceeded satisfactorily but, unfortunately, the coffee bar I which we are accustomed to having our post-exercise drink is closed for the whole of the week so that the volunteers who staff the kitchen can have a little Easter break. I took the opportunity to go off and visit a ‘Home and Gardens’ type store but they did not have the item for which I was looking and as so often happens these days, I thought I would shrug my shoulders and see if I could do without the item in question. When I got home, I immersed myself in the political news from the Middle east which is getting murkier by the moment. What is interesting is that after Trump’s foul-mouthed outburst the other day coupled with his threat to destroy the whole of Iranian civilisation of the Straits of Hormuz were not re-opened, then more doubts are being expressed about the President’s fitness for office. The latest revelation from ex White House cardiologist under a previous presidency who is calling for an annual ‘statement of fitness for office’ to be made by a competent White House doctor but to my mind there should be a trio of doctors who perform this assessment. In any event, Trump is feeling increasingly cornered and is lashing out in desperation to those around him and I suspect that some more random sackings might be forthcoming. I had a delayed lunch in which I feasted on eggs and ham together with some potatoes and beans, more conscious of the fact that I should not leave food mouldering in the fridge whilst I am away. In the mid afternoon, I received a surprise phone call from my daughter-in-law who was calling from the taxi on her home from the airport. She and my son were meant to be flying out of Birmingham airport on holiday. In the event, her flight and the whole holiday was cancelled but there will be an automatic refund. It means that my daughter-in-law can give me a lift down to the bus station tomorrow morning about which I am secretly relieved as I have been feeling a little tired over the last few days and the lift means that I should get to the bus station not worn out before the holiday actually starts. It looks as though some cloudy and stormy weather are in prospect for us but, during most of Friday, I shall be in a coach travelling Scotland-bound in any case. I am determined not to over-pack on this holiday so I am very strict about what is to be included within the suitcase but there are various things (such as tea and coffee making facilities) the absence of which can mar a holiday. The laptop upon which I compose this blog is going on the top of the suitcase and I can always ‘hot spot’ for a WiFi connection onto my iPhone, so I am hopeful that my blog can continue unabated for the next few days. As I now know that my daughter-in-law was due to pick me up to get to the bus station before the coach arrived to whisk me away on holiday up to Scotland, I allowed myself the slight luxury of staying up a little later than I had intended so that I could share in the audience reaction to the Iran war in ‘Question Time’.
I have just been alerted, via a ‘YouTube‘ video clip, of an extraordinary culture clash between Donald Trump’s White House (and Pentagon) and the Vatican where the Pope hails from the USA itself. The United States, particularly in moments of conflict, has historically drawn on religious language to frame its actions. What appears to be emerging in the current context, however, is a more explicit and systematic fusion of faith and force — one that risks narrowing the space for dissenting religious voices in a Vatican counter-narrative. Pope Leo XIV’s interventions can be read as an attempt to reassert a universalist moral framework rooted in post-war norms. His criticism of force-based diplomacy implicitly challenges not only specific military actions but also the broader erosion of principles established after the Second World War, including the prohibition on territorial aggression. Given that the Secretary of State for War, Pete Hegseth has often involved God in favour of the American military adventure the Pope has responded by saying (and I summarise) that ‘God does not accept prayers from those with blood on their hands’.
What I found completely extraordinary in this stand off between Church and State was the following report. Vice President J.D. Vance is investigating reports that senior Pentagon officials in January held a tense, allegedly threatening meeting with Cardinal Christophe Pierre, the Vatican’s ambassador to the US. According to multiple reports, the official told the cardinal that the United States had the military power to do ‘whatever it wants’ and warned that Pope Leo ‘better take its side’. Under Secretary of Defence for Policy Elbridge Colby, a close ally of Vance, is said to have called Pierre in for the unprecedented meeting. Tensions reportedly escalated, with one US official appearing to reference the Avignon Papacy, a period in the 14th century when the French crown exerted control over the papacy. In other words, the Catholic Church was explicitly warned, with a background of military threat as the meeting was held in the Pentagon, that the Church had better legitimise the current Iranian conflict as the Pentagon had the ability to force military compliance. To say that I found this whole episode jaw-dropping is probably an under-statement. What the Pope probably had in mind, as an undoubtedly learned man, is the following. Based on historical analysis and recently released Vatican archives, the relationship between the papacy and 1930s fascism—specifically Benito Mussolini’s regime in Italy was complex, characterised more by cooperation and calculated negotiation than outright ideological endorsement, though it frequently provided the regime with moral legitimacy. Pope Leo probably recognised this part of fairly recent Catholic history and was probably determined to learn the appropriate lessons.